HONG KONG - I’ve been on the road again this week, first in Thailand, and now in Hong Kong for a speech at the Royal Aeronautical Society and to meet with some reporters.
Typically, in my travels, one of the top 2 or 3 questions people pose is: “When are we going to see a “single-aisle” (737-size) replacement?” I think this is a good time to update you on that question.
It’s hard for me to believe, but the last time we talked about this in the blog was a couple of years back when my colleague, Mr. Baseler, shared his unique double take on the subject.
So, you might ask, has anything changed? Well, I’d say that our thinking has not so much changed, but evolved a bit.
We still believe that the Next-Generation 737 is a great product – in fact it’s the most efficient single-aisle airplane operating today, and is still the all-time best-selling commercial airliner. So, you can imagine that developing an airplane that delivers a better value is proving to be a tremendous challenge.
In Renton, the moving production line makes it easy to incorporate enhancements onto Next-Generation 737s. About 90% of 737 operators now choose to add fuel-saving, emission-reducing Blended Winglets. And Boeing will incorporate the latest announced enhancement - weight-saving carbon brakes - into the production line later this year.
We’re continuing to study the market, and learning more about what our airline customers need for the future. Obviously, a significant improvement in operating efficiency remains the common thread. And when I say significant, I mean significant. For instance, 15-20% improvement in fuel efficiency and 20-30% reduction in maintenance cost.
As I and my Boeing colleagues have said many times and in many forums, to do this is going to take real breakthroughs in every part of the airplane. We need new engine technologies, and improvements in materials and aerodynamics, as well as new aircraft systems.
Based on how technology is evolving, and what we know today, we now believe the replacement of the Next-Generation 737 will be ready late in the next decade.
In the meantime, we’ll also be studying ways to create even more value in our Next-Generation 737. We’ve steadily enhanced this airplane over the past several years, improving performance, comfort, and navigation precision. We’re looking at possible additional improvements such as interior enhancements, lower weight and drag, and improved engine efficiency.
Boeing and our partners will continue to invest in all the technologies needed for a new generation narrow-body (it may or may not have a single aisle), that will economically replace the 737 and A320 – to ensure the earliest possible entry in to the market.
I’ve always said that our product strategy is shaped by our market forecast, by technology, and most importantly by working with our customers to understand their needs and requirements.
This is a case where there’s clearly a market – more than 17,000 airplanes in the next 20 years. But just as clearly, first the technology needs to be developed in order to produce the right airplane to satisfy that huge market.