There's an excellent, wide-ranging piece in Airline Business entitled "On a roll." Since the Web article is accessible only by subscription, the magazine has kindly provided us a PDF version of the article that you can read here.
It's great background on what's happening with the latest models in commercial airplanes, and does a good job of setting the stage for the competition ahead in the twin-aisle market.
This piece covers just about everything from the markets for the 787 Dreamliner, the 777, and the Airbus A380, to an in-depth discussion of the 747 Advanced.
An interesting excerpt on the market for very large airplanes:
"Others share Boeing's skepticism about the size of the A380 market. As a leading aircraft financier notes: 'I doubt it is an 800-aircraft market. It could be nearer 300-400 and I would be surprised if it goes over 500. At present, most people who could trade out of 747's would prefer to have 777-300ERs offering more point-to-point opportunities.' "
And also this on the market in Japan:
"JAL, for example, says it has enough domestic aircraft capacity with 'future increases handled by increasing frequencies with smaller aircraft .. That policy is reflected by our recent aircraft orders for the 787 and the 737NG series.'
"More frequencies at Japanese airports, including Tokyo Narita, means ANA will be shifting from large to medium-sized aircraft domestically, says Yoji Ohashi, ANA President."
One bottom-line point from the story: 2005 will be a critical year for both Airbus and Boeing in terms of long-term product strategies.
Sounds about right to me.
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