Last week one of the world's largest package delivery companies ordered eight 747-400 freighters. It's a good reminder of the fantastic staying power of the 747. But it's also something much more.

You don't have to go any further than UPS' own announcement to see what that is. As UPS puts it, the 747 order is part of its "on-going effort to accommodate strong international volume growth."

The air cargo business is booming. In the second quarter of 2005, UPS reports that its export volume grew more than 18%, and that Asia export volume gained nearly 40%, with China alone rising 99%.

Which gives me a great opening to talk about Boeing's 20-year cargo forecast.

At the Paris Air Show this year, we announced that our forecast for air cargo calls for a 6.2% annual growth rate over the next 20 years. What this means in terms of airplanes is that the world freighter fleet will more than double from 1,760 to 3530 airplanes by the year 2024!

To accommodate all that growth and the replacement of older freighters over the years, we think the industry will need about 2,900 additional freighter airplanes - taking into account about 1,100 airplane retirements.

About three-quarters of those freighter additions will come from modified passenger and "combi" airplanes. Half of these conversions will be widebody conversions.

And the remainder of the freighters entering the fleet over the next 20 years will be new production freighters. We figure that to be a little over 720 airplanes, worth about $155 billion in today's U.S. dollars.

Note that widebody freighters will increase their numbers significantly over the next 20 years, from today's 47% of the fleet, to about 64% of the fleet in 2024. This shift toward widebodies will result in a fleet-wide increase in average freighter payload.

Now, something else I want to point out is that more than 90% of the world's freighter capacity was built by Boeing. We're the leader in the growing air cargo market because we offer a full freighter family. The other guys can't compete with that.

Our full line of new and modified freighters starts with 20-tonne-capacity freighters in the 737 class up to our latest offering, the 134-tonne 747 Advanced Freighter. The 747 Advanced is a stretched 747 powered by 787 engines. Cargolux and other freight carriers have continued to express interest in this new model. We expect to make a decision on launching the Advanced this year.

It's a brave new air cargo world we're entering - a far cry from when I was just starting out in this business. My very first job at Boeing was as an analyst in the Air Cargo Market Development group. At the time we were helping airlines develop their cargo markets in the early days of the 747 program. In fact, I began working at Boeing shortly after the very first 747 freighters entered service.

I look back now on the development of air freight over the last 30 years and can hardly believe that today there are nearly 300 747 freighters, both new and converted, out flying.

In the 1970s, it was kind of a tough sell. "You'll see," we'd say. "One day our freighters will fill the skies!"

Nobody needs convincing of that today. It's a fact.