A quick Google search will tell you that "leapfrog" is a children's game in which one player "leaps" over another player's back.

So, you might say, "Randy, what's that got to do with the current state of commercial airplanes?" Well, a lot. And also, very little.

Industry chatter about what Airbus is seemingly about to do with its widebody product line keeps mentioning this concept of "leapfrog." And I'm pretty sure it has nothing to do with the children's game.

"Leapfrog" has two important elements: enough leap, and at the right time. And in airplanes we're talking about the same elements.

The game of "leapfrog" requires enough leap at the right time.

First, "enough leap" implies technology - an efficiency and value leap. The "right time" element is all about leaping over something at the correct point. If you're too late, there's nothing there to leap over.

Some people seem surprised when I explain it that way. But, you know, if you jump too late, even if you have an improved product, there's nobody to leap over because the object of your "leap" may have already moved on by then.

We received a comment recently from Eric in Lombard, Illinois. It's a good segue into this topic:

Eric, that's true enough. That's why I want to point out that on the technology side, from what we see, there are no "leapfrog" technologies in anything Airbus is talking about.

If you take the example of the Boeing 777, that was definitely a case where waiting a couple of years after the introduction of the A340 did indeed produce a significant shift in efficiency and value: the 777's twin engines vs. the Airbus 4-engine product.

But in today's case we're not seeing anything along those lines. Of course we don't know what they're going to do. But from what we've read and heard it's going to be an airplane that uses essentially the same technology and economics as airplanes being offered today.

We don't know exactly where they are on composites, but at an EADS/Airbus briefing at the beginning of the year, they gave a clue when they said they were going to need to increase funding for their composite research in 2007 and 2008 because they want to lighten up their fuselages.

(Of course, I should tip my hat to the competition. They seem to have finally realized they need to step up to the technologies that make the 787 such a breakthrough!)

But that's going to be a bit of a catch-up game there, because by next year of course you'll already be seeing a composite airplane flying, and by 2008 you'll be able to buy a ticket on one. It's called the 787 Dreamliner.

In 2008 you'll be able to fly on a composite airplane called the 787.

So in other words, you can "leap" with yet another new version of the A350, but when all is said and done it appears that the first model of this airplane - whatever it is - will be four years behind the Boeing 787-8.

Industry buzz speculates that introduction of the Airbus airplane would not be until 2012, with follow-on models through 2014, which is eight years from today. The curious thing about the 2012 - 2014 time frame is that it's also the time Airbus had been talking about an A320 replacement.

Now, even if you assume that Airbus can put it all together and deliver four years after the 787 - in other words, in 2012 - why would you want to wait that long for a "me-too" airplane? In 2012 the Dreamliner will have four years of proven and reliable performance, with established infrastructure in place.

And keep in mind that Boeing will not be just standing in place either. Innovations and technology from the 787 will improve and enhance our entire product line.

Which brings me back to the children's game of "leapfrog." And clearly, this is no child's play.