Super-Sized Capacity Equals Super-Sized Waste

When a Boeing KC-767 and an EADS/Airbus KC-30 are flying side by side, the KC-30 is burning 24% more fuel than the KC-767. That’s physics, as the KC-30 is a significantly larger aircraft. The KC-767 fuel savings over a 40 year period, and these aircraft will likely be used longer, is approximately $30B at today’s fuel prices. And we all know the direction fuel prices will be going in the future. By burning this extra fuel, the KC-30 will also have significantly higher greenhouse gas emissions, a fact that should not be ignored.

In response to these facts, Northrop Grumman likes to reference the Aerial Refueling Efficiency (AFE) metric, which is a very different metric. The AFE metric was an attempt by the government to compare different sized tankers and was calculated as:

AFE = (Fuel Off-Loaded) ÷ (Fuel Off-Loaded + Fuel Burned)

Fuel off-load in the above is the actual amount of fuel transferred to aircraft in flight, what are called “receivers”. The key to the formula though is what is the assumed fuel off-load? Decades of tanker operations show that a typical off-load is in the 60,000 – 70,000 lb range. Using this as the assumed off-load; the KC-767 has a higher efficiency metric. One could also use the off-load requirements as defined by the government in their requirements for this competition as this also reflects reality of actual operations. At any point on the range/off-load curve defined by the government, and even above it, the KC-767 has a higher efficiency metric. Finally, if one looks at the actual results of the real life refueling scenarios that were part of the Integrated Fleet Aerial Refueling Assessment, the typical off-load from either the KC-767 or KC-30 were in line with history, and the requirements, and again the KC-767 has the higher AFE metric. The KC-30 only generates the higher efficiency metric when it flies to a range and off-loads a full load with just enough fuel to get back to base, an extremely rare event.

An analogy would be that Northrop would argue a Chevy Suburban carrying 8 people is more fuel efficient than a Chevy Malibu carrying 2 – 3 people as the fuel burn per person might actually be less. But we all know that the Suburban is burning more fuel than the Malibu as they drive side by side down the road. With 1 or 2 people in the Suburban, the most likely scenario 98% of the time, the “right-sized” Malibu is more efficient.

The super-sized capacity of the KC-30 is not capability, it is just waste.

Mark McGraw

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Comments (10)

TC (Mt. Vernon, WA):

If you could optimize the 767 tanker size, which way would you go and by percentage how much? Based on the off load requirements of this competition to get the best 40 year fuel savings.

Rick (Anchorage, Alaska):

Excellent point with your Chevy analogy.

Now just add that the Malibu (KC-767) is MORE robust (true cargo deck, etc.) than the other guy's so called Suburban.

Less turns out to be so much more.

Joel Ellis (Bartlesville, OK):

Unfortunately, what Mark McGraw fails to mention in his commentary about the AFE metric is that this was a criteria presented in the RFP for the KC-X program. The Boeing team knew full well that this was the metric that both aircraft would be graded against and they agreed to such a criteria. As well, at any time during the selection process, if Boeing somehow changed their mind about the fairness of the criteria, they could have protested. The Boeing team, however, and for whatever reason, did not exercise that option. That is obvious. What is more obvious, is that Boeing only chose to protest this decision, and the criteria that it was based on, after they lost the competition.

Another fallacy of Mark McGraw's argument is the historical data relating fuel offload. While the statistic he uses may be accurate, it belies the nature of the KC-X program which is to create an aircraft with equal or greater capability than the one it is intended to replace (i.e., the KC-135). This implies a changing of the status quo, meaning creation of an aircraft with greater fuel offload capability at a greater range. In other words, the aircraft is a game-changer where previous operational behaviors need not apply. To use Mark McGraw's analogy, the Air Force may have traditionally put two or three people in the Chevy Malibu, but now it hopes to move at least twice that many people in one Suburban. What makes more sense: one Suburban or two to three Malibus?

Boeing's argument is from a historical perspective (i.e., static, no change) and neglects that the fundemental purpose of the contract which was to create something different.

JYokom (Wichita, Ks):

One more factor not mentioned about the large size of the KC-30 is deployment. The KC-135 is much more efficient at Intratheater air refueling than the KC-10 due to its size. It has been shown that it isn't how much fuel that you can bring to the fight, its how many booms you can put into the fight. You can park a significant amount more KC-767s on the operating airfield than a KC-30 which is even larger than the KC-10. What good does the larger cargo carrying capability of the KC-30 provide while it is deployed to war? Are you going to break away from a refueling commitment in order to deliver cargo?

Eddie Maddox (Inwood IA USA):

Thanks, Boeing,

We finally are given some analysis,
even mathematics.

I would have liked a little more fleshing out,
but this is certainly on track for presenting
the different kinds of reasoning methods
to chose from, and the consequences.

Joel Ellis seems the "most" right here.
USAF-AMC did want something it
does not now have, and the RFP,
it was hoped, reflected that.

But, to some extent, Boeing's point
has merit, too, sometimes.

So, a "mixed fleet" seems desirable.
- A few larger: KC-10/KC-777
- Some medium: KC-30(KC-45)
- Many smaller: KC-135/KC-767BCT/KC-787

Something like that, maybe.

Thank you,
Eddie Maddox

Patti (Oklahoma City):

To: Joel Ellis (Bartlesville, OK):

Your comments sound like Northrup talking points, and I do notice there is a Northrup location in Bartlesville. We will see what the GAO has to say about the competition and protest. I definately believe Boeing has a good case for this protest.

jason Goodwin (brisbane Australia):

Yet again we see that a large american company cannot deal with someone else delivering a far superior product.

I notice that boeing made a big fuss when the Chinook contract was questioned and now that the umpire has made the decision you are bleating.

Not everything designed and made in the USA is the worlds best. Australia chose the KC-30 over the 767 based model because it is simply a better product.

This is about a company that already has a monopoly being beaten.

What strikes me as most hypocritical is the hyde of boeing to claim they are doing this for the warfighter. The men and women in Iraq and Afgahnistan (Including Aussies) need the equipment now.

You dishonor the american warrior by doing this.
Shame on you boeing.

Be suprised if this gets published!

Jason
Staunch US allie.

Taxpayer Tom (Frederick, MD):

Get over it Boeing. You've got to do better. Look at the etics record and improve that along with the technical matters.

Don't fault the umpires. Win by enough so the umpires calls don't matter.

Shaquille Squires (Panama City , Panama):

First I think that in these days that we are iving , is important to us , to airlines , governments,etc to save fuel , Imagine the USAAF using unefficient
aircraft , and for political reasons , I will choose
de KC-767

Dusten Whalen-Jacobs (Seattle, WA):

To Jason:
Yes, Australia did pick an A330 tanker...and look what they've got for it. Big delays on top of being overbudget, not to mention they have yet to pass fuel through the boom on this aircraft while in flight.

So my question is...why wouldn't the Air Force go with a tested, proven, and certified boom system that has continuously been improved and is going on its 6th generation? It just doesn't make any sense...

Fuel capacity is nothing without a tested and reliable means of delivery.

An aerial tanker without a boom is like a battle tank without a gun...useless.

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